Time flies swiftly, and before we know it, the Spring Festival has come to an end, and domestic fuel prices are set to undergo another round of adjustments.

In the last round of adjustments, the first price reduction of the year occurred, which also saved a considerable amount of money for many car owners during their Spring Festival travels.

The next round of price adjustments will commence at 24:00 on February 3rd. According to estimates by professional institutions, the fuel prices are expected to trend upwards after the holiday. However, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in the early hours of today, coupled with the significant drop in international crude oil prices yesterday, introduces a certain degree of uncertainty for the Friday adjustment.

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It is hoped that international oil prices will make another effort to fall, perhaps turning the anticipated price increase on Friday into a stalemate.

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So far this year, the two adjustments in fuel prices have experienced a rise and fall. Although the first round of adjustments saw an increase, the second round during the Spring Festival took a downturn, effectively canceling each other out.

Currently, the domestic refined oil price adjustment cycle is based on a ten-working-day period, which is typically two weeks. However, this round is somewhat exceptional due to the extended Spring Festival holiday, resulting in a span that actually exceeds three weeks.

During this period, international crude oil prices have seen a certain increase, but a noticeable decline has occurred this week.

The chart above illustrates the trend of WTI crude oil prices since the beginning of the year, with the three most recent bearish candlesticks resulting from last Friday, this Monday, and yesterday.The significant drop yesterday may have originated from the OPEC+ ministerial meeting, where the current decision is to maintain the production cut plan from last year unchanged.

The market anticipates a noticeable increase in demand from China, but at the same time, there is a possibility of a reduction in supply from Russia. These are uncertain factors that require further observation, hence OPEC+ is not prepared to announce a new production plan.

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Reviewing the details of the previous two rounds of oil price adjustments, the first round started at 24:00 on January 3rd, with domestic gasoline prices increasing by 250 yuan/ton, and diesel prices by 240 yuan/ton. The second round began at 24:00 on January 17th, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices starting to decline, with gasoline prices falling to 205 yuan/ton, and diesel prices to 195 yuan/ton. It is this rise and fall that offset each other, and the current cumulative oil price increase stands at 35 yuan/ton.

There are two days left until the next pricing cycle, and many predict that the next pricing period will show an upward trend.

However, last night the US dollar raised interest rates by another 25 basis points, a factor that everyone also needs to consider.

Under normal circumstances, a US interest rate hike would push up the US dollar index, but recently, despite several interest rate hikes, the US dollar index has been seen to fall.

In the early hours of today, after the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate hike, the US dollar index fell again to a low of 100.80. Perhaps this wave of decline will completely break below the 100-point mark.

This无疑是良好的支撑 for oil prices.Considering that refueling after a price increase would be significantly more expensive, it is always better for the majority of car owners to fill up their tanks beforehand as a precautionary measure.

As the Spring Festival is coming to an end, workers need to return to work, and many car owners will be traveling back on the roads.

Additionally, commercial demands are also on the rise, leading to a sustained high demand for oil domestically.

Under these circumstances, most domestic 92 octane gasoline is priced between 7.5 to 8.73 per liter/ton. 95 octane gasoline also remains below 8.3, which is still a relatively suitable price range.

However, the exact trend of future oil prices cannot be guaranteed with 100% certainty. We will need to wait patiently until the official announcement on Friday to get the answer.