As local city-level two sessions convene, the economic growth targets for various cities this year are being revealed one after another. Among them, the expected targets for all 26 trillion-GDP cities have been announced. The task of "economic powerhouse provinces to truly shoulder the main burden" has been broken down to these major economic cities, with trillion-GDP cities accounting for nearly 40% of the national economy, becoming the real pillars.

Revelation of Growth Targets for Trillion-GDP Cities

The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year proposed that "economic powerhouse provinces should truly shoulder the main burden and make a greater contribution to stabilizing the national economy." Economic powerhouse provinces have expressed their determination to "jump and reach higher," and have also broken down their targets to major economic cities, demanding that these cities shoulder the main burden.

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The Sichuan Provincial Economic Work Conference proposed that Chengdu should better play the role of a "ballast stone" and a "main engine," that cities building a provincial economic sub-center should accelerate high-quality development, that cities (states) with larger economic volumes should contribute more, and that regions with relatively lagging growth should catch up, striving to achieve a good start and a solid performance throughout the year.

As the "ballast stone" and "main engine" of Sichuan's economy, during the Chengdu two sessions in early February, Chengdu set its target for regional GDP growth this year at around 6%, which is in line with Sichuan's target for this year. Looking at the data from 2023, Chengdu's economic volume accounts for 36.71% of Sichuan's total, thus Chengdu's growth is crucial for the realization of Sichuan's target.

Not only Chengdu, but also other provincial capital cities in the central and western regions often have a high degree of primacy, accounting for a significant proportion of the total provincial economic volume, hence these major economic cities have a significant impact on the overall economic performance of their provinces.

Wuhan expects a regional GDP growth of 6% this year. The Wuhan municipal government's work report proposed this target, implementing the central spirit and the deployment of the provincial party committee and government, adhering to the important requirements of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing before breaking, reflecting the responsibility and commitment of major economic cities to shoulder the main burden, which is conducive to guiding all parties to focus their efforts on high-quality development.

As the country's largest economic province, Guangdong also named major economic cities in its government work report, demanding that Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, and other major economic cities truly shoulder the main burden, with other cities striving to learn, catch up, and be enterprising, to jointly contribute to promoting high-quality development and "creating a new Guangdong."

As the provincial capital of Guangdong, Guangzhou's government work report clearly stated its commitment to the responsibility of "major economic cities to truly shoulder the main burden," to make a greater contribution to the economic growth of the country and the province. Guangzhou's expected regional GDP growth target for this year is not less than 5%, with an actual growth of 4.6% in 2023.

Overall, the major economic cities of various provinces are all concentrated in the "Trillion-GDP City Club."First Financial calculations show that in 2023, the economic aggregate of the 26 cities with a GDP of over one trillion yuan has reached 39.8% of the national total, close to 40% of the national economic aggregate. Therefore, these cities are the main pillars both within their provinces and nationwide, bearing the responsibility of driving regional economic growth.

As local municipal two sessions are held one after another, the expected growth targets for these 26 cities this year have been revealed. First Financial found that, aside from the four municipalities directly under the central government, among the remaining 22 cities, Chengdu, Wuhan, Ningbo, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Fuzhou, Hefei, Xi'an, and Changzhou, nine cities have an expected target growth of around 6% or higher this year.

Among them, Zhengzhou has the highest growth target among the 26 cities, with an expected GDP growth of about 7% this year, while Henan's expected target is 5.5%. Moreover, in 2023, Zhengzhou's GDP grew by 7.4%, which was achieved on a low base in 2022, indicating the pressure Zhengzhou faces in setting this target.

The government work report of Zhengzhou proposed an expected economic growth target of around 7%, which is not only based on the multiple benefits of national major policies, the practical need to guide market expectations and boost development confidence, but also based on Zhengzhou's responsibility to "act as a national team, enhance internationalization, and lead the construction of modern Henan." It is also an inevitable choice to fully implement the provincial committee's new requirements of "five more" for Zhengzhou.

"Little Dragons" and "Little Tigers" are accelerating their rise.

In fact, for economically large provinces to truly shoulder the main responsibility, relying solely on these provincial capitals and major economic cities may not be sufficient. Therefore, some provinces have also set tasks for some "little dragons" and "little tigers" cities within their jurisdictions, especially some deputy central cities within the provinces that are accelerating their role as emerging economic growth poles within the province.

For example, Sichuan Province has established three deputy central cities for the provincial economy and clearly requires that their economic growth rate should be more than one percentage point higher than the province's in the next few years. Among them, the government work report of Yibin City proposed that this year's GDP growth rate should be about one percentage point higher than the province, striving to be two percentage points higher than the province; Mianyang City expects a GDP growth of about 7% this year.

The government work report of Mianyang City proposed that setting this target is a necessary duty to fulfill its mission. As the only science and technology city in China, the second-largest economy in Sichuan, and the third city in the Sichuan-Chongqing region, Mianyang must take on heavy responsibilities, press forward, and demonstrate its due role in the national and provincial context.

Compared to the large economic cities where the economic volume has reached a significant scale and face greater pressure to increase economic growth, these "little dragons" and "little tigers" within the region show a momentum of rapid growth.

For example, Luoyang, the second-largest city in Henan, expects a growth target of 6% this year; Yichang and Xiangyang in Hubei, and Yueyang in Hunan expect a growth of 7% this year; Wuhu in Anhui has a target growth of 7.5% this year. Luoyang, Yichang, Xiangyang, Yueyang, and Wuhu have a GDP scale of over 500 billion yuan or close to 500 billion yuan in 2023.Take another look at the four backup trillion-dollar cities: Tangshan, Dalian, Xuzhou, and Wenzhou. These four cities are not provincial capitals. Tangshan and Dalian are the largest economic entities within Hebei and Liaoning provinces, respectively, while Xuzhou ranks sixth in Jiangsu's total economic output, and Wenzhou is the third in Zhejiang province.

The GDP of Tangshan, Xuzhou, Dalian, and Wenzhou are 913.33 billion yuan, 890.044 billion yuan, 875.29 billion yuan, and 873.06 billion yuan, respectively. According to the local government work reports, Tangshan and Dalian have an expected target of around 6% for this year, while Xuzhou and Wenzhou both have an expected target of over 6%. In comparison, Hebei, Liaoning, and Zhejiang have set their targets for this year at around 5.5%, while Jiangsu has set a target of over 5%. These cities' growth rates are all higher than the provincial average.